The fallacy is that we are surprised when things that are supposed to vary a lot, come down one way a number of times. We feel the next case must break the pattern. In reality, there is no pattern.

Human decision-making involving independent events is often biased and affected by prior outcomes. Using a controlled task that allows us to manipulate prior outcomes, the present study examined the ...

We often move through life believing that happiness, calm, peace, and fulfillment are waiting for us just beyond the next milestone. I fell into this trap often in undergraduate and graduate school. I ...