The current definition of a conditional probability enables one to update probabilities only on the basis of stochastic information. This paper provides a definition for conditional probability with ...

Take two events A and B. For example, let A be the event “Receive a score of 95% on the econometrics exam” and let B be the event “Study econometrics 12 hours a day”. We might be interested in the ...

For example, the probability of getting a one when rolling a (standard) die is usually assumed to be one sixth. If you were given the extra information that the die roll was an odd number (hence 1, 3 ...

We elaborate on an alternative representation of conditional probability to the usual tree diagram. We term the representation “turtleback diagram” for its resemblance to the pattern on turtle shells.