Bayesian reasoning provides a principled framework for updating beliefs based on new evidence, playing a pivotal role in understanding human cognitive processes. This framework illuminates how ...

Virtually all computations performed by the nervous system are subject to uncertainty and taking this into account is critical for making inferences about the outside world. For instance, imagine ...

This course is available on the MPhil/PhD in International Relations and MRes/PhD in International Development. This course is available with permission as an outside option to students on other ...

ベイジアンネットワークの核となるベイズ推定なんだけど。 非常に鋭い直感ですね。条件付き確率はまさにそこで威力を発揮するポイントです。 実務的に考えると、クロスドッキングの意思決定は本来「条件付き確率の積み重ね」で説明できます。 TCでの ...

SCIENCE, being a human activity, is not immune to fashion. For example, one of the first mathematicians to study the subject of probability theory was an English clergyman called Thomas Bayes, who was ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

The traditional approach to risk analysis relies on predetermined rules. An online gambling company might flag up any bets over a certain monetary value, for example, or a bank might block any ...

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily. It is really, really hard to find stuff to write about other than the C19 pandemic.

The Rev. Thomas Bayes was, as the honorific the Rev. suggests, a clergyman. Too bad he wasn’t a lawyer. Maybe if he had been, lawyers today wouldn’t be so reluctant to enlist his mathematical insights ...